WEFT · NEMby Polymorphic AI
Forecasting price spikes in Australia's electricity market
WEFT is a forecasting model for the five regions of the National Electricity Market. Every five minutes, as AEMO publishes the latest dispatch data, it forecasts each region's price for the next two hours and the chance that the price first rises above $300/MWh within 30 minutes, 1 hour and 2 hours. Each forecast is checked against AEMO's own forecast and the price actually set.
Why WEFT
Wire-maskedEventForecastTransformer
WEFT is a transformer, the kind of neural network behind modern language models, built to forecast price events in the NEM. Between regions its attention is masked to the wires: each region reads directly only from the regions its interconnectors join it to, plus one market-wide summary.
The name is also a weaving term. The weft is the thread that crosses the warp; here the warp is time, and the weft runs across it, between the regions.
What it forecasts
For New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria: the 5-minute regional price for each interval over the next two hours, as a median with a 10–90% range, and, while the price is below $300/MWh, the probability that it first rises above $300 within 30 minutes, 1 hour and 2 hours.
How it is checked
The live page keeps score as it goes. A forecast counts only if it arrived before the interval it forecasts began, and it is compared with AEMO's own 5-minute pre-dispatch forecast and with the price AEMO actually set.
Who made it
WEFT, the NEM Atlas and WEFT Research are made by Polymorphic AI. Market data come from AEMO's public NEMWEB archive.